Free tool

Will your event sell out?

Describe your event and get a transparent projection of tickets sold, real attendance and revenue. The model estimates demand independently of venue capacity, then improves as you add your audience, marketing, previous-event or live-sales data. No sign-up needed.

Open-Meteo ERA5 · 80,000+ game weather study · 860+ event no-show benchmarks · P10 / P50 / P90

Pick from the list - we use the exact coordinates for weather and market size.

Optional - defaults to the typical window for the event type.

The performer, speaker, organizer and event brand - not the room size.

Improve accuracy with real data (optional)

These inputs carry more weight than generic benchmarks. Add whatever you genuinely know; leave the rest blank.

The strongest signal once sales are live. Enter 0 if sales are live but none have sold.

Used to detect whether sales are accelerating or falling behind the normal curve.

Use the last edition or the closest genuinely comparable event.

Subscribers you can market this event to.

Meta, Google, TikTok combined - in your currency.

Unique people likely to actually see the campaign - not total followers.

Additional unique people partners can reach, excluding obvious overlap where possible.

Returning audiences lift sales and tighten the range.

Total costs you pay regardless of attendance - unlocks break-even analysis.

Catering, wristbands, staffing per head.

Bar, food, merch - added to revenue if set.

Runs entirely in your browser against open data sources. Nothing is stored, no account needed.

Your report renders here

A projection, not a guess

Fill in the form above and the engine fetches a decade of weather for your coordinates, checks the holiday calendar, sizes your market and runs 3,000 simulations - then shows every factor and its source.

Under the hood

Why you can trust the number

Most "AI predictors" ask a chatbot to guess. This tool uses a transparent demand model: venue capacity is only the ceiling, while market, audience, marketing and real sales determine how many people are likely to buy.

Real weather, your coordinates

For far-out dates we build a 10-year climatology from ERA5 reanalysis data for your exact venue location: the true historical chance of rain and the temperature range for that calendar date. Inside 16 days, we switch to the live forecast.

Published benchmarks, cited

Temperature response from an 80,000-game study, no-show rates from 860+ events, lead-time curves from platform datasets of millions of transactions. Each factor in your report links to its source - check our maths.

Evidence changes the answer

3,000 seeded simulations produce P10 / P50 / P90 and a true sell-out probability. Live sales and previous results outweigh generic benchmarks and tighten the interval automatically.

Questions

About the projection

It is a planning forecast, not a promise. Before sales start, audience strength and reachable demand are the biggest unknowns, so the range is intentionally wide. Once you enter real sales or a comparable previous event, those observations outweigh the generic prior and tighten the range. Treat P10 as a planning floor, not a guarantee.

Open-Meteo. For dates beyond the forecast horizon we compute a climatology from 10 years of daily ERA5 reanalysis in a two-week window around your date, at your venue's coordinates. Within 16 days of the event the tool uses the live forecast instead - re-run it as the date approaches.

No. Everything runs in your browser. The shareable link encodes your inputs in the URL itself, so only people you send it to can see them.

If you sell with Venuera, your dashboard already tracks real pacing, check-ins and no-shows per event - the same concepts this tool projects, measured instead of estimated. The projection is the "before"; Venuera reports are the "after".

Then make it happen

Sell the tickets you just projected

Venuera turns WordPress + WooCommerce into a full box office: unlimited tickets, QR check-in, no per-ticket fees. Keep 100% of every sale in the projection above.

Get Venuera free